GLP-1 Weight Loss Plotter
Interactive projection tool based on STEP, SURMOUNT, and TRIUMPH trial data. Enter your starting weight and protocol; see your realistic trajectory with confidence bands reflecting the actual variance observed in human trials.
Plot Your Projected Trajectory
Enter your starting weight and pick a GLP-1. The chart models the published trial average with a realistic plateau and a ±10% individual-variance band. This is a projection from clinical-trial averages — not a personalized prediction.
Curves model the trial-average total loss approaching a plateau (exponential fit to the published endpoint). Your actual result depends on dose adherence, titration, diet, and individual response. Educational purposes only — not medical advice.
How It Works
Wegovy / Ozempic data. Average 15% body weight loss at 68 weeks; wide variance. Titration over 16 weeks to 2.4mg weekly. The established curve.
Mounjaro / Zepbound data. Average 22.5% at 72 weeks on top dose. Titration over 20 weeks to 15mg weekly. Steeper initial slope, delayed plateau.
Triple agonist, not yet approved. Phase 2 data shows ~24% at 48 weeks. Phase 3 ongoing; projection bands reflect the tighter sample size.
Most GLP-1 users hit a plateau around weeks 20-40. The plotter models this non-linearity rather than assuming constant weekly loss — which overestimates late results.
What the Data Shows
Key Takeaways
- Published STEP, SURMOUNT, and TRIUMPH data give clear average trajectories
- Most individuals land within ±10% of the trial mean
- Plateau inflection is real and happens around weeks 20-40 on most protocols
- Titration schedule significantly affects tolerance and side effects
- Food quality and protein intake matter independently of the peptide
- Projections are averages — your individual response depends on genetics, diet, and adherence
- Trial populations were mostly BMI 30+ — results may differ at lower BMI
- Stopping the drug typically leads to weight regain (~2/3 within a year)
- Tool does not account for muscle loss risk (see glp1-muscle-loss page)
- Does not replace medical supervision — this is projection, not prescription
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is the projection?
The plotter anchors each curve to the published trial-average total loss (STEP, SURMOUNT, TRIUMPH) and models the approach-to-plateau between your start weight and that endpoint. It is a population-average projection, not a personalized prediction — individual results commonly vary by about ±10%.
Can I plot cycling protocols?
Not yet — current plotter assumes continuous dosing as studied. Cycling protocols don't have published trial data and projections would be guesswork.
Why does my trajectory flatten?
The GLP-1 plateau is real and biological. Receptor downregulation, adaptive metabolism, and behavioral compensation all contribute. Most people lose most of their total weight in the first 6 months.
What about compounded semaglutide?
Dose-equivalent compounded semaglutide should produce similar trajectories if the product is pure. Quality varies; check your compounding pharmacy credentials.
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Projections are based on published clinical trial data. Individual results vary. The plotter is a planning tool, not medical advice.
Always work with a qualified healthcare provider for weight-loss therapy. GLP-1 drugs are prescription medications with real side-effect profiles.